Robert Jervis is Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. His most recent book is Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (Cornell University Press, 2010). His System Effects: Complexity in Political Life (Princeton University Press, 1997) was a co-winner of the APSA’s Psychology Section Best Book Award, and The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution (Cornell University Press, 1989) won the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. He is also the author of The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton University Press, 1970; 2d ed., Columbia University Press, 1989), Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976), The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Cornell University Press, 1984), American Foreign Policy in a New Era (Routledge, 2005), and over 150 other publications.

Jervis was President of the American Political Science Association in 2000-01 and has received career achievement awards from the International Society of Political Psychology and ISA’s Security Studies Section. In 2006 he received the National Academy of Science’s tri-annual award for behavioral sciences contributions to avoiding nuclear war and has received honorary degrees from Oberlin College and the University of Venice. He was a Guggenheim Fellow in 1978-79 and is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the American Academy of Political and Social Science and the American Philosophical Society. Jervis chairs the Historical Review Panel for CIA and is an Intelligence Community associate. His current research includes the nature of beliefs, IR theory and the Cold War, and the links between signaling and perception.


Robert Jervis, Francis J. Gavin, Joshua Rovner, Diane Labrosse, Chaos in the Liberal Order (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2018).
Robert Jervis and Robert Art, International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues (London: Pearson, 2015).
Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010).
American Foreign Policy in a New Era (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2005).
Paul W. Schroeder, Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on the International History of Modern Europe, eds. Robert Jervis, David Wetzel, and Jack Levy, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004).
Robert Jervis, David Sears and Leonie Huddy, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2003).
System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997).
Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, Coping with Complexity in the International System (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
Robert Jervis et al., eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, 3 vols. (Oxford University Press, 1990-93).
Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer, eds., Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1991).
Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Superpower Competition in the Eurasian Rimland (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1991).
The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990).
Robert Jervis et al., eds., Perspectives on Deterrence (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1989).
The Logic of Images in International Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1988)
The Symbolic Nature of Nuclear Politics (Champaign, IL: University of Illinois, 1986)
Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985).
The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1984).
Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976).

Book Chapters

“Our New and Better World,” in Still a Western World?, eds. Sergio Fabbrini and Raffaele Marchetti (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2016).
“International Relations Theory,” in  Explaining the History of American Foreign Relations, Third Edition, eds. Frank Costigliola and Michael Hogan (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2016).
“The Cuban Missile Crisis: What Can We Know, Why Did it Start, How Did it End?” in The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Critical Reappraisal, eds. Len Scott and G. Gerald Hughes (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2015).
“The United States and Iran: Perceptions and Policy Traps,” in U.S.-Iran Misperceptions: A Dialogue, eds. Abbas Maleki and John Tirman (London, UK: Bloomsbury, 2014).
“Causation and Responsibility in a Complex World,” in Back to Basics: State Power in a Contemporary World, eds. Martha Finnemore and Judith Goldstein (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2013).
“Explaining the War in Iraq,” in Why Did the United States Invade Iraq?, eds. Jane Cramer and Trevor Thrall (New York: Routledge, 2011).
“Identity and the Cold War,” in The Cambridge History of the Cold War, eds. Melvyn Leffler and Odd Arne Westad (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010).
“Morality, Policy, and Theory,” in The Invention of International Relations Theory, ed. Nicholas Guilhot (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010).
“The US in a New World: An Empire But We Can’t Keep It,” in Imbalance of Power – US Hegemony and International Order, ed. William Zartman (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2009).
“Kargil, Deterrence, and International Relations Theory,” in Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia, ed. Peter Lavoy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
“Intelligence, Counterintelligence, Perception, and Deception,” in Vaults, Mirrors, and Masks, eds. Jennifer Sims and Burton Gerber (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2009).
“Deterrence, Rogue States, and the Bush Administration,” in Complex Deterrence, eds. T.V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, and James Wirtz (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2009).
“Intelligence, Civil-Intelligence Relations, and Democracy,” in Reforming Intelligence: Obstacles to Democratic Control and Effectiveness, eds. Thomas Bruneau and Steven Boraz (College Station, TX: Texas A&M Press, 2007).
“Perestroika, Politics, and the Profession: Targets and Tolerance,” in Perestroika, ed. Kristen Monroe (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005).
“The Prospects for American Hegemony,” in Striking First: The Preventive War Doctrine and The Reshaping of U.S. Foreign Policy, eds. Betty Glad and Chris J. Dolan (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2004).
“Security Studies: Ideas, Policy, and Politics,” in The Evolution of Political Knowledge, eds. Edward Mansfield and Richard Sisson (Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2004).
“Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate,” in Progress in International Relations Theory, eds. Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
“Political Science Perspectives on the Origins of World War II,” in The Origins of World War Two: The Debate Continues, eds. Robert Boyce and Joseph A. Maiolo (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 2003).
“Conclusion: Interaction and International History,” in The Transformation of European Politics, 1763-1848: Episode or Model in Modern History?, eds. Peter Kruger and Paul Schroeder (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003).
“Diplomatic History and International Relations: Why are they Studied so Differently?” in Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations, eds. Miriam Fendius Elman and Colin Elman (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001).
“Signaling and Perception: Drawing Inferences and Projecting Images,” in Political Psychology, ed. Kristen Renwick Monroe (Mahwah, N.J. : Psychology Press, 2002): 293.
“Introduction,” in The New American Interventionism, ed. James Caraley (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999).
Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, “Civil War and the Security Dilemma,” in Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, eds. Barbara Walter and Jack Snyder (Columbia University Press, 1999).
“Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War,” in Witnesses to the End of the Cold War, ed. William Wohlforth (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
“Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity,” in Thought Experiments in World Politics, eds. Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996).
“Navies, Politics, and Political Science,” in Doing Navy History: Essays Toward Improvement, ed. John Hattendorf (Newport, RI: Naval War College Press, 1995).
“The Drunkard’s Search,” in Current Approaches to Political Psychology, eds. Shanto Iynegar and William McGuire (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1994).
“What Do We Want to Deter and How Do We Deter It?,” in Turning Point: The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy, eds. L. Benjamin Ederington and Michael Mazarr (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994).
“The Political Psychology of the Gulf War,” in The Political Psychology of the Gulf War, ed. Stanley Renshon (University of Pittsburg Press, 1993).
“Systems Effects,” in Strategy and Choice, ed. Richard Zeckhauser (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991).
“Strategic Intelligence and Effective Policy,” in Security and Intelligence: New Perspectives for the 1990s, eds. Stuart Farson, David Stafford, and Wesley Wark (London, UK: Frank Cass, 1991).
“Foreign Policy and Congressional/Presidential Relations,” in The Constitution and National Security, eds. Howard Shuman and Walter Thomas (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1990).
“Psychology and Crisis Stability,” in Avoiding the Brink, eds. Andrew Goldberg, et al. (London, UK: Brassey’s, 1990).
“Will the New World Be Better?,” in Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War, eds. Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer (Durham: Duke University Press, 1990).
“Introduction” in Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War, eds. Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer (Duke University Press, 1990).
“Change, Surprise, and the Hiding Hand,” in Journeys Through World Politics: Reflections of Thirty-Four Academic Travelers, eds. Joseph Kruzel and James Rosenau (Boston, MA: Lexington, 1989).
“International Crisis Management and Security Studies,” in Leading Edges in Social and Behavioral Science, eds. R. Duncan Luce et al. (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1989).
“Morality and Nuclear Strategy,” in International Ethics in the Nuclear Age, ed. Robert Myers (University Press of America, 1987).
“Improving the Intelligence Process: Informal Norms and Incentives,” in Intelligence: Policy and Process, eds. Alfred Maurer et al. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986).
“Cognition and Political Behavior,” in Cognition and Political Behavior, eds. Richard Lau and David Sears (Potomac, MD: Erlbaum, 1986).
“Beliefs about Soviet Behavior,” in Containment, Soviet Behavior, and Grand Strategy, eds. Robert Osgood et al. (Berkeley, CA: University of California at Berkeley Institute of International Studies, 1982).
“Systems Theories and Diplomatic History,” in Diplomatic History: New Approaches, ed. Paul Lauren (Free Press, 1979).
“Minimizing Misperception,” in Thought and Action in Foreign Policy, eds. G. Matthew Bohnam and Michael Shapiro (Basel, CH: Birkhauser Verlag, 1977).
“Cumulation, Correlation and Woozles,” in In Search of Global Patterns, ed. James Rosenau (Free Press, 1976).
“Consistency in Foreign Policy Views,” in Communication in International Politics, ed. Richard Merritt (Champaign, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1972).
“Bargaining and Bargaining Tactics,” in Coercion, Nomos, vol. 14, eds. J. Roland Pennock and John Chapman (Chicago: Aldine-Atherton, 1972).
“The Costs of the Quantitative Study of International Relations,” in Contending Approaches to International Politics, eds. Klaus Knorr and James Rosenau (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1968).
“Conclusion,” in Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War, eds. Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer (Durham: Duke University Press, 1990).
Robert Jervis et al., “Conclusion,” in Perspectives on Deterrence, eds. Paul Stern et al. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989).

Journal Articles

“Pinker the Prophet,” The National Interest, no. 116 (2011): 54.
“The Torture Blame Game: The Botched Senate Report on the CIA’s Misdeeds,” Foreign Affairs 94, no. 3 (2015): 33.
“Serving or Self-Serving: A Review Essay,” Political Science Quarterly 129, no. 2 (2014): 319.
“Capire l’Iran: Intelligence e strategia,” (“Understanding Iran: Intelligence and Policy”), Aspenia 60 (2013): 40.
“Do Leaders Matter and How Would We Know?” Security Studies 22, no. 2 (2013): 153.
“Getting to Yes with Iran: The Challenges of Coercive Diplomacy,” Foreign Affairs 92, no. 1 (2013): 105.
“System Effects Revisited,” Critical Review 24, no. 3 (2012): 393.
“Politics and International Politics Scholarship,” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 3 (2012): 623.
“Security and Psychology: Enduring Questions, Changing Answers,” Yale Journal of International Affairs 7, no. 1 (2012): 9.
“Fighting for Standing or Standing to Fight,” Security Studies 21, no. 2 (2012): 336.
“Force in Our Times,” International Relations 25, no. 4 (2011): 403. An expanded version is in Psychology, Strategy, and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations, ed. James Davis (Routledge, 2012).
“Dilemmas About Security Dilemmas,” Security Studies 20, no. 3 (2011): 416.
“Thinking Systemically About Geopolitics,” Geopolitics 15, no. 1 (2010): 165.
“Policy and Politics in the United Kingdom and the United States: A Review Essay,” Political Science Quarterly 125, no. 4 (2010): 685.
“Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash,” Political Science Quarterly 125, no. 2 (2010): 185.
“The Politics of Troop Withdrawal: Salted Peanuts, the Commitment Trap, and Buying Time,” Diplomatic History 34, no. 3 (2010): 507.
“Black Swans in Politics,” Critical Review 21, no. 4 (2009): 475.
“Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying” (Review of Atomic Obsession, by John Mueller), The National Interest, no. 104 (2009): 73.
“Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective,” World Politics 61, no. 1 (2009): 188.
“War, Intelligence, and Honesty: A Review Essay,” Political Science Quarterly 123, no. 4 (2008): 645.
“Bridges, Barriers, and Gaps: The Relationships Between Research and Policy,” Political Psychology 29, no. 4 (August 2008): 571.
“Comments on Trachtenberg,” Historically Speaking 8, no. 2 (2006): 17.
“Understanding Beliefs,” Political Psychology 27, no. 5 (2006): 641.
“Correspondence: Thinking Systematically About China,” International Security 31, no. 2 (2006): 206.
“Containment Strategies in Perspective: A Review Essay,” Journal of Cold War Studies 8 (2006).
“The Remaking of a Unipolar World,” Washington Quarterly 29, no. 3 (2006): 5.
“The Politics and Psychology of Intelligence Reform,” The Forum 4, no. 1 (2006).
“Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq,” Journal of Strategic Studies 29, no. 1 (2006): 3.
“Why the Bush Doctrine Cannot be Sustained,” Political Science Quarterly 120, no. 3 (2005): 351.
Contribution to “APSA Presidents Reflect on Political Science,” Perspectives on Politics 3, no. 2, ed. Jennifer L. Hochschild (2005).
“Logics of Mind and International System: A Journey with Robert Jervis” (an interview with Thierry Balzacq), Review of International Studies 30, no. 4 (2004): 559.
“The Implications of Prospect Theory for Human Nature,” Political Psychology 25, no. 2 (2004): 163.
“Understanding the Bush Doctrine,” Political Science Quarterly 118, no. 3 (2003): 365.
“The Compulsive Empire,” Foreign Policy no. 137 (2003): 82.
“The Confrontation between Iraq and the U.S.: Implications for the Theory and Practice of Deterrence,” European Journal of International Relations 9, no. 2 (2003): 315.
Robert Jervis et al., “The Dustbin of History: MAD,” Foreign Policy no. 133 (2002): 34.
“International Institutions: A Comment on Schweller,” International Security 27 (2002).
“Politics, Political Science, and Specialization,” PS: Political Science & Politics 35, no. 2 (2002): 187.
“Theories of War in an Era of Leading Power Peace,” American Political Science Review 96, no. 1 (2002): 1.
“An Interim Assessment of September 11: What Has Changed and What Has Not,” Political Science Quarterly 117, no. 1(2002): 37.
“Was the Cold War a Security Dilemma?” Journal of Cold War Studies 3, no. 1 (2001): 36.
“Variation, Change, and Transitions in International Politics,” Review of International Studies 27, no. 5 (2001): 281.
“Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era” (review essay), Foreign Affairs 80, no. 4 (2001): 143.
Robert Jervis and Alexa Jervis, “Naked Ambition,” The Sciences 40, no. 6 (2000): 38.
“Interactions and Timing in Politics: A Comment on Pierson,” Studies in American Political Development 14, no. 1 (2000): 93.
“Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation,” International Security 24, no. 1 (1999): 42.
“America and the Twentieth Century: Continuity and Change,” Diplomatic History 23, no. 2 (1999): 219.
“Realism in the Study of World Politics,” International Organization 52, no. 4 (1998): 971.
“U.S. Grand Strategy: Mission Impossible,” Naval War College Review 51, no. 3 (1998): 22.
Robert Jervis, Cheryl Koopman, Eric Shiraev, Rose McDermott, and Jack Snyder, “Beliefs about International Security and Change in 1992 among Russian and American National Security Elites,” Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 4, no. 1 (1998).
“Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life,” Political Science Quarterly 112, no. 4 (1997): 569.
Cheryl Koopman, Robert Jervis, Jack Snyder, Rose McDermott, and Joe Dioso “Stability and Change in American Elite Beliefs about International Relations,” Journal of Peace Psychology 1, no. 4 (1995).
“Legacies of the Cold War,” Brown Journal of World Affairs 2, no. 1 (1995): 21.
“Leadership, Post-Cold War Politics, and Psychology,” Political Psychology 15, no. 4 (1994): 769.
“Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and the Scientific Study of International Politics,” Social Research 61, no. 4 (1994): 853.
“The End of the Cold War on the Cold War? A Review of Leffler’s A Preponderance of Power,” Diplomatic History 17, no. 4 (1993): 651.
“International Primacy: Is the Game Worth the Candle?” International Security 17, no. 4 (1993): 52.
“A Useable Past for the Future,” Diplomatic History 16, no. 1 (1992).
“The Political Implications of Loss Aversion,” Political Psychology 13, no. 2 (1992): 187.
“A Political Science Perspective on the Balance of Power and the Concert of Europe: Perspectives from Political Science,” American Historical Review 97, no. 3 (1992): 716.
“The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?” International Security 16, no. 3 (1991): 39.
“The Military History of the Cold War,” Diplomatic History 15, no. 1 (1991): 91.
“Arms Control, Stability, and the Causes of War,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 170.
Robert Jervis, Cheryl Koopman, and Jack Snyder, “Theory-Driven Versus Data-Driven Assessment in a Crisis,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (1990).
“Models and Cases in the Study of International Conflict,” Journal of International Affairs 44, no. 1 (1990): 81.
“Political Psychology—Challenges and Opportunities,” Political Psychology 10, no. 3 (1989): 481.
“Debates on Deterrence: Security and Mutual Security,” Etudes Internationales 20, no. 3 (1989): 557.
Robert Jervis, Cheryl Koopman, and Jack Snyder, “American Elite Views of Relations with the Soviet Union,” Journal of Social Issues 45, no. 2 (1989).
“Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence,” World Politics 41, no. 2 (1989): 183.
“The Political Influence of Nuclear Weapons,” International Security 13, no. 2 (1988): 80.
“War and Misperception,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18, no. 4 (1988): 675.
“Realism, Game Theory, and Cooperation,” World Politics 40, no. 3 (1988): 317.
“The Contributions of APSA President Kenneth Waltz,” PS: Political Science & Politics 20, no. 4 (1987): 856.
“The Nuclear Revolution and the Common Defense,” Political Science Quarterly 101, no. 5 (1986): 689.
“Intelligence and Foreign Policy: A Review Essay,” International Security 11, no. 3 (1986): 141.
“Strategic Theory: What’s New and What’s True,” Journal of Strategic Studies 9, no. 4 (1986): 135.
“Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments,” Political Psychology 7, no. 3 (1986): 483.
“A History of Secrets,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (1986).
“More Than the Facts Will Bear” (review essay), International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 1 (1986).
“What’s Wrong with the Intelligence Process?” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 1, no. 1 (1986): 28.
“From Balance to Concert: A Study in International Security Cooperation,” World Politics 38, no. 1 (1985): 58-79.
“Technology, Politics, and Choice” (review essay), Journal of International Affairs 39, no. 1 (1985): 191.
“Pluralistic Rigor: A Comment on Bueno de Mesquita,” International Studies Quarterly 29, no. 2 (1985): 145.
“Deterrence By Punishment: The Best Feasible Policy,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (1985).
“The Madness Beyond MAD: Current American Nuclear Strategy,” PS: Political Science & Politics (Winter 1984).
“Deterrence and Perception,” International Security 7, no. 3 (1982). Also printed in National Security and International Stability 8, eds. Bernard Brodie, Michael Intriligator and Roman Kolkowicz (Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, & Han, 1983).
“Security Regimes,” International Organization 36, no. 2 (1982): 357.
“The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24, no. 4 (1980): 563.
“Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Recent Contributions,” Political Psychology 2, no. 2 (1980): 86.
“Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn’t Matter,” Political Science Quarterly 94, no. 4 (1979): 617.
“Deterrence Theory Revisited,” World Politics 31, no. 2 (1979): 289.
“Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (1978): 167.
“Easy Choices,” Polity 3, no. 1 (1970): 118.
“Reply to Professor North,” International Studies Quarterly 12, no. 2 (1968): 225.
“Hypotheses on Misperception,” World Politics 20, no. 3 (1968): 454.
“The Costs of the Scientific Study of Politics: An Examination of the Stanford Content Analysis Studies,” International Studies Quarterly 11, no. 4 (1967): 366.

Other Articles

“Snowden: Traitor or Hero (a Comment),” Intelligence and National Security (forthcoming).
“President Trump and IR Theory,” International Security Studies Forum Policy Series, American and the World–2017 and Beyond (2 January 2017).
Robert Jervis et al., “How Realism Waltzed Off: Liberalism and Decision making in Kenneth Waltz’s Neorealism,” H-Diplo/ISSF Article Review Form 59 (9 September 2016).
“Thomas C. Schelling: A Reminiscence,” War on the Rocks (28 December 2016).
“Turn Down for What: The Iran Deal and What Follows,” Foreign Affairs (15 July 2015).
“On the Road to Yes With Iran,” Foreign Affairs (29 November 2013 ).
“How Intelligence and Policy Intersect,” RSIS Working Paper (2013).
“Relations Between the US and Iran: Threats and Promises,” Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Working Paper no. 17 (2012).
“Comment on John Gaddis, George F. Kennan” (review essay), H-Diplo (2012).
“Comment on Vincent Pouliot, Security in Practice” (Review essay), H-Diplo (2011).
V. Page Fortna, Robert Jervis, and Warner Schilling, “The War on Terrorism: Two Years On,” Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University (2003).