The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and the Columbia Climate School present:

Book Talk: Climate Change, Disasters, and the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts

Hosted by V. Page Fortna, Director, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace
Studies; Harold Brown Professor of US Foreign and Security Policy

Moderated by Alexander de Sherbinin, Senior Research Scientist, Deputy
Director and Adjunct Professor of Climate, Center for International Earth
Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School

Speaker: Tobias Ide, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Murdoch University Perth; author, Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts, MIT Press 2023

Wednesday, October 4, 2023
2:15 PM – 3:45 PM
Room 1302, International Affairs Building

Watch the event recording here.



Both decision makers and scholars are increasingly concerned about the security implications of climate change. More extreme weather events will result in more frequent and intense disasters like droughts, floods, or storms. Given that the number of armed conflicts worldwide is on a historic high, such disasters are increasingly likely to affect civil war-ridden areas, which are also highly vulnerable to climate change. However, as of yet, little is known on how disaster impacts the dynamics of armed conflicts. The seminar will draw on comprehensive evidence from 31 civil wars in 21 countries across four continents to answer these questions.