SIWPS Member Austin Long has published an article, co-written with Dr. Elbridge Colby, in the National Interest on the possible results of a military strike on Iran. The piece, titled “Why Not to Attack Iran,” argues that the results of an attack on Iran would not be as simple as proponents of such a strike assume. Citing historical examples from World War II to the Clinton-era strikes on Iraq, Dr. Long and Dr. Colby note that bombing campaigns often fail to produce the desired policy change and sometimes cause populations to rally around their government. Furthermore, ensuring a permanent stop to the Iranian nuclear program would require either regime change through ground invasion or “perpetual war,” write the authors, neither one of which would be preferable to the (admittedly high) costs of deterring a nuclear Iran.
The article can be read on the National Interest’s website.