The latest Saltzman Institute Working Paper, by Member of the Institute and SIPA Assistant Professor Austin Long, is now available.
The paper, “Stall Speed: Assessing Delay of the Iranian Nuclear Program via Israeli Military Strike,” is the eighteenth in our series of Working Paper Series. In it, Dr. Long discusses the outcome of Israel following through on recent rhetoric declaring willingness to conduct a military strike on Iran to weaken its nuclear program. Using a careful assessment of Iran’s enrichment capabilities, he examines the amount of delay produced by an air strike, assuming that Fordow would be the only surviving facility for uranium enrichment.
Ultimately, Dr. Long concludes that the most likely scenario is one where Israel succeeds in postponing Iran’s ability to enrich weapons-grade uranium by one to two years, though this depends heavily on several variables.