2026 MPA-ISP graduate Maya Hartman won the STRATCOM Welch Deterrence Writing Award for original research on strategic deterrence. Her paper, “The Illusion of Vulnerability: Adversary Perception, AI Counterforce, and Nuclear Instability,” examines AI integration into counterforce capabilities and implications for the US-China dyad. 

Two of the escalatory dynamics she highlights are (1) the opacity of AI-assisted systems and (2) the gap between perceptions of the technology versus its actual capabilities. Maya uses Dean Yarhi-Milo’s selective-attention framework to explain why intelligence assessments demonstrating technical limitations might fail to reassure political leaders. The paper will be published in the Journal of Peace and War Studies.