Stephen Biddle

Professor of International and Public Affairs, School of International and Public Affairs

1332 International Affairs
212-854-1496

Stephen Biddle is Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has served on the Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board, on General David Petraeus’ Joint Strategic Assessment Team in Baghdad in 2007, as a Senior Advisor to the Central Command Assessment Team in Washington in 2008-9, as a member of General Stanley McChrystal’s Initial Strategic Assessment Team in Kabul in 2009, and on a variety of other government advisory panels and analytical teams. Biddle lectures regularly at the U.S. Army War College and other military schools, and has presented testimony before congressional committees on issues relating to the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria; force planning; conventional net assessment; and European arms control.

Biddle’s book Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle (Princeton University Press, 2004) won four prizes, including the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Award Silver Medal for 2005, and the 2005 Huntington Prize from the Harvard University Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. His other publications include scholarly papers in International Security, Security Studies, The Journal of Strategic Studies, The Journal of Politics, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, and other academic journals; shorter pieces on military topics in Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic Monthly, The New Republic, The American Interest, The National Interest, and other news and opinion outlets; and 31 NATO and U.S. government sponsored reports and monographs.

Before joining the Columbia faculty in fall 2018 Biddle was Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, and has held the Elihu Root chair in military studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and the Roger Hertog Senior Fellowship at the Council on Foreign Relations. He co-directs the Columbia University Summer Workshop on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS), and has held held teaching and research positions at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), and Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA). Biddle was awarded the U.S. Army Superior Civilian Service Medal in 2003 and again in 2006, and was presented with the U.S. Army Commander’s Award for Public Service in Baghdad in 2007. His research has won Barchi, Rist, and Impact Prizes from the Military Operations Research Society. He holds AB, MPP, and Ph.D. degrees, all from Harvard University.

 

Publications

Books

Battlefield Nuclear Weapons: Issues and Options, eds. Stephen D. Biddle and Peter D. Feaver (Lanham: University Press of America, 1989).

Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004).

Book Chapters

“Theory and Practice of Continental Warfare,” in Strategy in the Contemporary World, 5th edition, eds. John Baylis, James J. Wirtz, and Colin S. Gray (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).

Stephen D. Biddle and Peter Feaver, “Assessing Strategic Choices in the War on Terror,” in Understanding the U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, eds. Beth Bailey and Richard Immerman, (New York: NYU Press, 2015). Revised version in How 9/11 Changed Our Ways of War, ed. James Burk (Stanford: Stanford University Press 2013).

“Tactical Level Stability Hypotheses and Tests,” in Models for Security Policy in the Post-Cold War Era, eds. Reiner K. Huber and Rudolf Avenhaus (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1996).

“U.S. Forces in Europe,” in American Defense Annual 1994,  ed. Charles F. Hermann (New York: Lexington Books, 1994).

“Recent Trends in Armor, Infantry and Artillery Technology: Developments and Implications,” in The Diffusion of Advanced Weaponry, ed. W. Thomas Wander (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1994).

“Offense-Defense Balance, Force-to-Space Ratios, and Defense Effectiveness,” in The Future of European Security: The Pursuit of Peace in an Era of Revolutionary Change, ed. J. Philip Rogers (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1993).

“Can Conventional Forces Substitute for Battlefield Nuclear Weapons?,” in Battlefield Nuclear Weapons:  Issues and Options, eds. Peter D. Feaver and Stephen D. Biddle, (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1989).

“Lessons Learned in Afghanistan and Iraq,” in U.S. Policy in Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons and Legacies, eds. Seyom Brown and Robert H. Scales (Boulder: Lynn Rienner, 2012).

“Military Effectiveness,” in The International Studies Encyclopedia, eds. Robert Denemark et al. (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010).

Stephen D. Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon, and Kenneth Pollack, “The Evolution of Iraq Strategy,” in Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President, eds. Richard N. Haass and Martin Indyk (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2008).

“Iraq, Afghanistan, and American Military Transformation,” in Strategy in the Contemporary World, 2nd edition, eds. James Wirtz, Eliot Cohen and John Baylis (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 2007).

“Explaining Military Outcomes,” in Creating Military Power: The Sources of Military Effectiveness, eds. Risa A. Brooks and Elizabeth A. Stanley (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007).

“Toppling the Taliban in Afghanistan,” in Understanding Victory and Defeat in Contemporary War, ed. Jan Engstrom (London: Routledge, 2007).

“Land Warfare: Theory and Practice,” in Strategy in the Contemporary World, eds. James Wirtz, Eliot Cohen, and John Baylis (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).

“Technology, Civil-Military Relations and Warfare in Southern Asia,” in Military Capacity and the Risk of War: China, India, Pakistan and Iran, ed. Eric Arnett (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 1997).

“Explaining the Loss-Exchange Ratio in the Gulf War,” in 33 Jahre militarische Systemanalyse [33 Years of Military Systems Analysis], eds. Hans W. Hofmann and Heinz Schelle (Munich: Universitat der Bundeswehr, 1996).

“Criteria, Modelling Approaches and Analysis Requirements,” in Military Stability, ed. Reiner Huber (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1990).

“Can Conventional Forces Substitute for Battlefield Nuclear Weapons?” in Battlefield Nuclear Weapons: Issues and Options, eds. Stephen D. Biddle and Peter D. Feaver (Lanham: University Press of America, 1989).

“Policy Implications for the United States,” in Proxy Wars: Fighting Terrorists, Insurgents, and Drug Lords through Local Agents, eds. David Lake and Eli Berman (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, forthcoming).

“Assessing the Islamic State Threat,” in Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015, ed. Jon B. Alterman (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2015).

Journal Articles

Stephen D. Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Correspondence: Future Warfare in the Western Pacific,” International Security 41, no. 4 (2017): 202.

“Review Symposium: The New US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual as Political Science and Political Praxis,” Perspectives on Politics 6, no. 2 (2008): 347.

Review of The Continental School of Strategy: The Past, Present, and Future of Land Warfare, by Michael Evans, Journal of Strategic Studies  29, no. 1 (2006): 172.

Review of The Diffusion of Military Technology and Ideas, eds. Emily Goldman and Leslie Eliason, Perspectives on Politics 3, no. 3 (2004): 632.

“The New Way of War? Debating the Kosovo Model,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 3 (2002): 138.

Stephen D. Biddle and Julia Klare, “Military Utility and the Control of Landmines,” UN Institute for Disarmament Research Newsletter, no. 28/29 (1994/1995): 22.

Stephen D. Biddle, Julia MacDonald, and Ryan Baker, “Small Footprint, Small Payoff: The Military Utility of Security Force Assistance,” Journal of Strategic Studies 41, no. 1 (2018).

“Building Security Forces and Stabilizing Nations: The Problem of Agency,” Daedalus 146, no. 4 (2017): 126.

Stephen D. Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia,” International Security 41, no.1 (2016): 7.

“Ending the War in Afghanistan: How to Avoid Failure on the Installment Plan,” Foreign Affairs, (October 2013): 49.

Stephen D. Biddle, Jeffrey Friedman, and Jacob Shapiro, “Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?,” International Security 37, no. 1 (2012): 7.

Stephen D. Biddle, Jeffrey Friedman, Stephen Long, “Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq,” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1 (2012): 85.

“The Difference Two Years Make,” The American Interest 7, no. 1 (2011): 40.

Stephen D. Biddle, Fotini Christia, and J. Alex Thier, “Defining Success in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs 89, no. 4 (2010): 48.

“Is There a Middle Way? The Problem with Half Measures in Afghanistan,” The New Republic 240, no. 20 (2009): 28.

“Is it Worth It? The Difficult Case for War in Afghanistan,” The American Interest 4, no. 6 (2009): 40.

Stephen D. Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon, and Kenneth Pollack, “How to Leave a Stable Iraq: Building on Progress,” Foreign Affairs 87, no. 5 (2008): 40.

“Patient Stabilized?” The National Interest (March 2009): 4.

“Military Strategy: An Introduction,” PS: Political Science and Politics 40, no. 3 (2007): 461.

“Speed Kills: Reevaluating the Role of Speed, Precision, and Situation Awareness in the Fall of Saddam,” Journal of Strategic Studies 30, no. 1 (2007): 3.

“Defining Victory and Defeat in Iraq,” The National Interest 86 (2006): 12.

“Biddle Replies,” Foreign Affairs, What to Do in Iraq: A Roundtable 85, no. 4 (2006): 165.

“Seeing Baghdad, Thinking Saigon: The Perils of Refighting Vietnam in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 2 (2006): 2.

“Allies, Air Power, and Modern Warfare,” International Security 30, no. 3 (2005): 161.

“Military Power: A Reply,” Journal of Strategic Studies 28, no. 3 (2005): 453.

Stephen D. Biddle and Stephen Long, “Democracy and Military Effectiveness: A Deeper Look,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 4 (2004): 525.

“Afghanistan and the Future of Warfare,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 2 (2003).

Stephen D. Biddle, Michael Fischerkeller, and Wade Hinkle, “The Interaction of Skill and Technology in Combat,” Military Operations Research 7, no. 1 (2002): 39.

“Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory,” Journal of Politics 63, no. 3 (2001): 741.

Stephen D. Biddle and JCISS Study Group, “The Risks of a Networked Military,” Orbis 44, no. 1 (2000): 127.

Stephen D. Biddle, Wade Hinkle, and Michael Fischerkeller, “Skill and Technology in Modern Warfare,” Joint Force Quarterly 22 (1999): 18.

“The Past as Prologue: Assessing Theories of Future Warfare,” Security Studies 8, no. 1 (1998) 1.

Stephen D. Biddle, et al., “Controlling Antipersonnel Landmines,” Contemporary Security Policy 19, no. 3 (1998): 27.

“The Gulf Debate Redux: Why Skill and Technology are the Right Answer,” International Security 22, no. 2 (1997): 163.

“Victory Misunderstood: What the Gulf War Tells Us About the Future of Conflict,” International Security 21, no. 2 (1996): 139.

Stephen D. Biddle and Robert Zirkle, “Technology, Civil-Military Relations, and Warfare in the Developing World” Journal of Strategic Studies 19, no. 2 (1996): 171.

“Offense, Defense, and the End of the Cold War: Criteria for an Appropriate Balance,” Defense Analysis 11, no. 1 (1995): 65.

“The European Conventional Balance: A Reinterpretation of the Debate,” Survival (March 1988): 99.

Other Articles

“Afghanistan: Peace Prospects at the Abyss,” The American Interest (21 September 2018).

Stephen D. Biddle, Julia MacDonald and Ryan Baker, “The Trump administration wants to send more military advisers to Afghanistan. Good luck with that.” Monkey Cage (blog) Washington Post (15 May 2017).

“Trump’s Appetite for Risk Spells Trouble for US National Security,” Fortune Magazine (April 7, 2017).

Stephen D. Biddle and Jacob Shapiro, “The Problem With Vows to ‘Defeat’ the Islamic State,” The Atlantic (21 August 2016).

“Afghanistan Needs a Settlement, Not Another Troop-Withdrawal Deadline,” Defense One (7 June 2016).

Stephen D. Biddle and Jacob Shapiro, “America Can’t Do Much About ISIS,” The Atlantic (20 April 2016).

Stephen D. Biddle and Jacob Shapiro, “Here’s why we can only contain the Islamic State, not bomb it back to the Stone Age,” Money Cage (blog) Washington Post (1 December 2015).

“Stop Putting Afghanistan on a Deadline,” Defense One (24 March 2015).

“Evaluating U.S. Options for Iraq,” Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee, Hearing on “Security Situation in Iraq and Syria: U.S. Policy Options and Implications for the Region,” Second Sess., 113th Congress (29 July 2014).

Stephen D. Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Why the Ukraine Separatists Screwed Up: Badly Organized Insurgents Can’t Master Complex Weapon Systems,” Washington Post, Monkey Cage (21 July 2014).

“Afghanistan’s Legacy: Emerging Lessons of an Ongoing War,” The Washington Quarterly 37, no. 2 (2014): 73.

Caitlin Talmadge and Stephen D. Biddle, “Assessing Options for Iraq,” Memorandum for National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Deputy National Security Advisor Antony Blinken (23 June 2014).

“War Termination in Afghanistan,” Testimony Before the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa & Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, United States House of Representatives, Hearing on “After the Withdrawal: The Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” First Sess., 113th Congress (29 October 2013).

“Assessing the Case for Striking Syria,” Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland Security, United States House of Representatives, Hearing on “Crisis in Syria: Implications for Homeland Security,” First Sess., 113th Congress (10 September 2013).

Stephen D. Biddle and Michael O’Hanlon, “Hamid Karzai, Confused by the U.S.,” Washington Post (29 March 2013).

“Salvaging Governance Reform in Afghanistan,” Council on Foreign Relations Policy Innovation Memorandum, No. 16 (April 2012).

“Running Out of Time for Afghan governance Reform: How Little Can We Live With?” Foreign Affairs online (16 December 2011).

“Learning to Live With Insecurity In A Post 9/11 World,” Business Insider (30 August 2011).

“Long Term Goals for Afghanistan and Their Near Term Implications,” Testimony Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Hearings on “Steps Needed for a Successful 2014 Transition in Afghanistan,” First Sess., 112th Congress (10 May 2011).

“How Much Should U.S. Policy Change?” Boston Globe (3 May 2011).

Stephen D. Biddle and Michael O’Hanlon, “U.S. Progress in Afghanistan Easier for Soldiers to See than Civilians,” Baltimore Sun (5 April 2011).

“When Interests Diverge,” in “Is There an Obama Doctrine?,”  New York Times online, Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News, (30 March 2011).

Stephen D. Biddle and Michael O’Hanlon, “Slogging it Out in Afghanistan,” Washington Times, 25 March 2011.

“The Libya Dilemma: The Limits of Airpower,” Washington Post (25 March 2011).

Co-author, Iraq Joint Campaign Plan Assessment Team Report, US Forces Iraq (USF-I) Headquarters, Baghdad, Iraq (November 2010).

“War by Other Means,” foreignpolicy.com (27 September 2010).

“The U.S. and Afghanistan: Next Steps,” Aspen Institute Congressional Program, Vol. 25, No. 3 (May 31-June 6, 2010): 17-22.

“Assessing U.S. Options for Afghanistan, ” Testimony Before the Committee on Armed Services, United States House of Representatives, First Sess., 111th Congress (14 October 2009).

“Assessing the Case for War in Afghanistan,” Testimony Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, First Sess., 111th Congress (16 September 2009).

Co-author, COMISAF Initial Strategic Assessment Team Report, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Headquarters, Kabul, Afghanistan, August 2009.

“Funding the U.S. Counterinsurgency Wars,” cfr.org (19 June 2009).

Reversal in Iraq, Council on Foreign Relations Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 2, Washington, D.C., May 2009.

“Afghanistan, Iraq, and U.S. Strategy in 2009,” Testimony Before the Committee on Armed Services, United States House of Representatives, First Sess., 111th Congress (12 February 2009).

Project Director, The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, September 2008.

Stephen D. Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon, and Kenneth Pollack, “Not Quite Ready to Go Home,” New York Times, 5 August 2008, p. 19.

“Stabilizing Iraq from the Bottom Up,” Testimony Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Second Sess., 110th Congress (2 April 2008).

“Iraq After the Surge,” Testimony Before the Committee on Armed Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, United States House of Representatives, Second Sess., 110th Congress (23 January 2008).

Stephen D. Biddle and Jeffrey Friedman, “The Iraq Data Debate: Civilian Casualties from 2006 to 2007,” cfr.org, 25 September 2007.

Stephen D. Biddle and Larry Korb, “Violence by the Numbers in Iraq: Sound Data or Shaky Statistics? An Online Debate with Stephen Biddle and Larry Korb,” cfr.org (25 September 2007).

“Evaluating Options for Partial Withdrawals from Iraq,” Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations in Alternatives for Iraq, Hearings Before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. House of Representatives, First Sess., 110th Congress (25 July 2007).

“Hard Bargaining,” Boston Globe, 3 June 2007.

Co-author, Joint Strategic Assessment Team Report, Multinational Force Iraq (MNF-I) Headquarters, Baghdad, Iraq, April 2007.

“Not a Sign of Success,” Guardian, 21 February 2007.

“Teuer und halbherzig,” [“Expensive and Halfhearted”] Suddeutsche Zeitung, 12 February 2007.

“A Gamble at Long Odds,” The National Interest, 12 January 2007.

“Recommendations Regarding US Strategy in Iraq,” Presentation to the President and Vice President of the United States,m The White House (11 December 2006).

“There is no Middle Ground,” Guardian, 8 December 2006.

“Heading for the Exit,” Foreign Affairs, 7 December 2006.

Stephen D. Biddle and Ray Rakeyh, “The Limits of Force: The Iraq Syndrome will haunt America,” International Herald Tribune, 16 August 2006.

“Responses to ‘What to Do in Iraq,'” Foreign Affairs, 17 July 2006.

“No, it’s not Vietnam. This one’s a civil war,” International Herald Tribune, 3 March 2006.

American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, April 2005.

“Special Forces and the Future of Warfare,” in H. H. Gaffney, ed., The Changing Nature of Warfare: Papers Submitted for the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2020 Project (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, 2004), CIM D0010476.A1.

Project Director, Toppling Saddam: Iraq and American Military Transformation, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, April 2004.

“Iraq and the Future of Warfare,” Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee in Operation Iraqi Freedom: An Outside Perspective, Hearings Before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. House of Representatives, First Sess., 108th Congress (October 2003).

Afghanistan and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2002): 31.

War Aims and War Termination, Defeating Terrorism Strategic Issue Analysis, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, October 2001. Reprinted in: Daniel J. Kaufman, Jay M. Parker and Patrick V. Howell, eds., Through Alternative Lenses (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003).

Co-author, Military Coercion in Bosnia: A Case Study, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA D-2982, January 1998. Also published in:  Papers from the 65th Annual Symposium of the Military Operations Research Society (Alexandria, VA: MORS, 1998).

Co-author, The Frequency and Nature of U.S. Military Operations, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA D-2109, February 1998.

The Sources of Coercive Leverage, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-3384, February 1998.

“Learning the (Wrong) Lessons From the Gulf War,” The Wall Street Journal, 3 September 1997, p. A20.

“Commentary on Victory Misunderstood,” Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA D-2014, September 1997.

“Explaining the Coalition Loss Rate in the Gulf War,” in Papers from the 64th Annual Symposium of the Military Operations Research Society (Alexandria, VA: MORS, 1997).

Project Director, Landmine  Arms Control, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-3001, May 1996.

Project Director, Missions, Threats and Tasks for Long Range Planning, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA D-1536, December 1995.

Revolutionary Change in Warfare, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-3123, September 1995.

Co-author, Stable Defense, NATO Defense Research Group Technical Report AC/243 (Panel 7)TR/5, April 1995.

Project Director, The Military Utility of Landmines: Implications for Arms Control, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA D-1559, June 1994.

Project Director, New Approaches to Planning for Emerging Long Term Threats, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-2896, Vol. 2, December 1993.

Project Director, Stabilizing and Destabilizing Conventional Weapons, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-2548, September 1991.

Project Director, Defense at Low Force Levels: The Effect of Force to Space Ratios on Conventional Combat Dynamics, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-2380,  August 1991.

“Gorbachev, Force Structure and the Defense Budge,” Testimony Before the Defense Policy Panel of the House Armed Services Committee in U.S. Defense Budgets in a Changing Threat Environment, Hearings Before the Defense Policy Panel of the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. House of Representatives, First Sess., 101st Congress, HASC No. 101-39, (Wash., D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 1990): 2-25.

The State of Knowledge on the Determinants of Offensiveness and Defensiveness in Conventional Ground Forces, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-2295, October 1989.

Co-author, The Battlefield of the Future, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-2194, January 1989.

“What Does Conventional Stability Mean, What Would a Stable Posture Look Like, and How Can Arms Control or Force Improvements Help Us Get There?,”Testimony Before the Defense Policy Panel of the House Armed Services Committee in Defining Stability in the European Theatre, Hearings Before the Defense Policy Panel of the Committee on Armed Services, Second Sess., 100th Congress, HASC No. 100-104 (Wash. D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 1989): 107-132.

“Time to Ask the Right Questions: The Conventional balance Debate Likely to Miss the Mark,” Defense News, 15 February 1988, p. 24.

How to Think About Conventional-Nuclear Substitution, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1884, Vol. 1, January 1986; Vol. 2, May 1986.

Co-author, Robust Operational Concepts, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1802, Vol. 2, September 1985.

Co-author, Assessing the Core Military Values of NATO’s Theater Nuclear Forces, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1693, March 1985.

Co-author, A Methodology for Assessing the Core Military Values of NATO’s Theater Nuclear Forces, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1724, June 1984.

Targeting for Effectiveness Degradation on the Chemical Battlefield, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1729, September 1983.

The Chemical Attrition Potential: A Static Assessment Methodology for Chemical Weapons, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1675, April 1983.

Co-author, Net Assessment Methodologies and Critical Data Elements for Strategic and Theater Force Comparisons for Total Force Capability Assessment (TFCA), Interim Report, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1615, January 1982.

Co-author, Analysis of U.S. Antitank Trends, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-1519, April 1981.

“Reconsidering the Afghan War,” in “The War on Terror After Osama bin Laden,” New York Times online, Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News (3 May 2011).

“Lessons from the Balkans,” in “Getting the Troops Out of Iraq,” New York Times online, Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News (2 August 2010).

“A Tale of Two Convoys,” International Herald Tribune (9 March 2010). Also published in New York Times online (8 March 2010).

“Unfinished Business in Iraq,” Suddeutsche Zeitung, Munich Security Conference Supplement (5 February 2010).

“Using Sticks,” in New York Times online, Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News (30 July 2009).

“Peacekeeping, Not Training,” in New York Times online, Room for Debate: A Running Commentary on the News (30 July 2009).

“Iraq: Can We Guard What We’ve Gained?” Washington Post, 9 December 2007, p. B7.

“Go Deep or Get Out,” Washington Post, 11 July 2007.

Co-author, Beyond Firepower: Including Skill and Operational Sophistication in Combat Modeling, Institute for Defense Analyses, IDA P-3477.

“Future War Up Close: Enemy Can Limit Value of Deep Strike,” Defense News, October 8-14, 2011.